Shipping lines are canceling sailings at a rate not seen since the peak of the pandemic as tariff turmoil and weak U.S. demand are impacting global supply chains.
▍Operating profit margin falls below break-even point. Currently, the operating profit margin of carriers on several major routes has fallen below the break-even point, but shipping companies still put market share above profitability and give priority to protecting market share.
▍According to a new analysis by Project 44, a digital supply chain services company, the number of suspended sailings between China and the United States is expected to reach unprecedented levels in October 2025, with 67 planned sailings from China to the United States and 71 from the United States to China. The analysis indicates that these capacity reductions exceed records recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the severe disruption to seaborne trade caused by the Trump administration’s recent tariff measures.
▍Interpretation of Carrier Strategies Bart De Muynck, Chief Strategy Officer of Better Supply Chains, said: “The intensity of carrier cancellations has not been seen since the early days of the epidemic. This strategy is more about maintaining freight rates in a tariff-distorted market than responding to the crisis.”
▍Trade data declines. Since Donald Trump took office, Sino-US trade has undergone significant changes. US imports from China have declined for five consecutive months, while exports have fallen for nine consecutive months. Year-to-date, imports are down 27% year-on-year, while exports have plummeted 42%.
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